China and India to lead global economic recovery

Global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will reach 5.1 per cent in 2021 with developing and advanced economies at 6.1 per cent and 3.8 per cent respectively, according to global market research company Euromonitor International.

Findings from Euromonitor’s Global Recovery Tracker suggest that amongst the top ten largest economies, China and India will recover the fastest, while the United Kingdom (UK) and Brazil will take the longest.

India is leading the world’s economic recovery with a GDP growth set to reach 9 per cent in 2021, a strong performance led by a 12.5 per cent forecast increase in private consumption during the festive season at the end of this year. In second place, China’s GDP growth is forecast at 7.5 per cent for 2021.

With the country’s industrial and services sectors having already recovered by October 2020, its private and consumer sectors are following suit, signalling an acceleration in recovery.

In the UK, the situation between Covid-19 and Brexit causes uncertainty about the future and gives an additional shock to the economy.

Giedrius Stalenis, economist at Euromonitor International states, “Unsuccessful Brexit negotiations would stagnate economic growth for the UK. However, if companies prepare better for a No-Deal Brexit, the UK economy could grow around 4 per cent by 2021.”

In Brazil, while the energy and transportation sectors are still underperforming, the manufacturing and production sectors are showing signs of partial economic recovery, forecasting a 3.2 per cent GDP growth in 2021, one of the lowest in the world.

The increase in an ageing population is another contributing factor to a comparatively slower recovery rate in advanced economies, such as Japan, Italy and France.




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